The Timeline
When is it actually coming?
A tracked, honest timeline of the companion era — what has already happened, what's shipping now, and where we think it goes next. Projections are labelled as such.
Realbotix becomes a public company
The team behind RealDoll — making lifelike silicone humans since the 1990s — emerges as the publicly traded Realbotix, staking the company on emotionally intelligent companions rather than factory labour.
A robot joins the boardroom
Realbotix names Aria a non-executive advisor to its board — a press stunt, but a telling one: the companion as colleague, not just curiosity.
Clone opens Alpha reservations
A radically different bet on realism: 279 reservations for an android built from synthetic muscle and an artificial skeleton, sold on biomechanical fidelity rather than a friendly face.
Aria debuts at CES 2025
A conversational companion with 17 facial motors and interchangeable faces becomes the most talked-about machine in Las Vegas — launched at $175,000 (prices have since come down).
Protoclone twitches to life
Clone's full-body synthetic-muscle prototype, suspended from a frame and kicking in a viral clip, gives the world its first eerie look at a robot built like a body, not a machine.
Figure 02 finishes its BMW pilot
An eleven-month deployment at BMW's Spartanburg plant proves general-purpose humanoids can hold a real production line — handling 90,000+ sheet-metal parts.
1X opens NEO pre-orders
The first consumer home humanoid with an actual price and delivery date: $20,000 outright or $499 a month, with US homes slated for late 2026.
Figure 03 + Helix point the field home
Figure reorients toward the household with Figure 03 and its Helix vision-language-action model — a signal that the home, not just the warehouse, is the prize.
Electric Atlas enters production
Boston Dynamics begins limited commercial production of the all-electric Atlas, with the first units committed to Hyundai and Google DeepMind. The capability ceiling rises again.
CES 2026: companions hold a conversation
Realbotix brings a four-robot lineup to Las Vegas, where Aria carries on a live, unscripted, multilingual conversation with a second robot. The spectacle is the point — and it works.
DroidUp reveals Moya in Shanghai
A warm-skinned, female-presenting prototype with a claimed body-temperature surface goes viral. Striking — and, for now, entirely unverified outside the maker's own demo.
Aria is actually shipping
Orders fill in roughly twelve weeks, with about a dozen units delivered by the company's own count. Tiny numbers — but these are real machines in real homes, today.
Tesla targets low-volume Optimus production
Tesla aims to begin low-volume Optimus builds at Fremont. Projected, not confirmed — with no external customers announced and limited in-factory use admitted.
First NEO home deliveries (targeted)
1X aims to put NEO in its first US homes — initially leaning on remote human teleoperators to fill the gap until onboard autonomy matures.
The uncanny threshold (projection)
Our estimate: the first companions whose faces hold up to sustained eye contact in motion, not just in stills. The hardest mile in the whole race.
Companionship under $10k (projection)
When a credible companion costs less than a used car, the category stops being a curiosity. Years out — and dependent on actuator and skin costs falling hard.
The briefing
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